The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has reignited concerns in global markets, with immediate impacts on energy, logistics and supply chains. The US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports, which enters into force today, April 13, represents one of the most significant measures seen in the Gulf region in recent years, directly affecting trade flows linked to one of the world's main energy hubs. Although it does not amount to a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which around 20 percent of global oil supplies pass, the measure is exerting a strong impact on market expectations, increasing risk premiums and fueling uncertainty over energy flows.

Energy prices rise: oil above $100/barrel, pressure mounts on industrial costs

The market reaction was immediate. Brent climbed above $102/barrel, while WTI moved past $104/barrel, posting gains of around6-7 percent within a matter of hours. For the steel sector, which is highly energy-intensive, the return of elevated energy prices represents a critical factor. Rising oil and fuel costs are directly affecting production costs, particularly for integrated mills and downstream processing activities, while also increasing transportation costs for raw materials and finished products. In this context, electricity and gas prices, which are already subject to volatility, are expected to come under further pressure, with knockon effects on the competitiveness of steel producers, especially in Europe.

At the same time, instability in the Gulf region is undermining the regular flow of maritime traffic. Restrictions and operational risks are reducing the number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and forcing operators to use longer and more costly alternative routes. Initial evidence points to delivery delays of up to 20-25 days, creating difficulties in logistics planning and inventory management. The uncertain environment is also affecting vessel availability and the organization of trade flows, both of which are key elements in the international trade of steel and raw materials. A further critical factor is the rise in ocean freight rates, which, according to market sources, have seen significant increases in recent weeks, in some cases tripling and further aggravating overall costs along the supply chain.

For the global steel sector, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are translating into concrete risks both on the raw materials procurement side, including iron ore and coal, and on the export side toward key Middle Eastern markets. The Gulf region is in fact an important destination for numerous producers, as well as a strategic logistics hub for trade flows between Asia and Europe. Any disruption or slowdown in traffic may therefore alter trade balances, reduce traded volumes, and increase price volatility. In addition, growing uncertainty may push market players to revise their sourcing and sales strategies, favoring alternative markets or shortening supply chains.

Direct impact on Italian ports: exports and energy costs

The repercussions are already becoming visible in Italy as well. The port of Ancona, one of the Adriatic's main ports with strongtrade links to the Gulf, is already seeing a significant impact on operations. According to local operators, as much as 20-25 percentof annual exports are directly exposed to those markets, with volumes already declining due to difficulties in maritime traffic.Delivery delays and the cancellation of some shipments are creating a knock-on effect on industrial activity, raising the risk of lowerproduction for the companies most exposed. At the same time, rising energy costs are beginning to affect the real economy. Higherlfuel, gas and electricity prices are weighing both on industrial costs and on domestic demand, which is already under pressure. ForlItalian steel companies, which are heavily dependent on energy and deeply integrated into global supply chains, the currentenvironment represents an additional source of strain.

Some operators are trying to work around logistical difficulties by resorting to alternative solutions such as overland transport, butthese options are more expensive and not always sustainable in the medium term.

Outlook

In the short term, the market remains exposed to high volatility. The evolution of the crisis between the United States and Iran will be decisive for the stability of energy and trade routes. For the steel sector, the main risk lies in the combination of elevated energy costs, logistical tensions and uncertainty on the demand side. A prolonged crisis could further increase pressure on margins and slow international trade even more.

Market players are waiting for developments on the diplomatic front, but in the meantime the market has already begun adjusting to a more complex scenario marked by greater risk and lower predictability.