Following the adoption of new EU safeguard measures, the sector is showing the first signs of stabilisation

100 days after the new EU safeguard measures came into force, the European steel industry is showing the first signs of renewed confidence.  These developments were discussed at a meeting between the newly elected president of EUROFER, Gert van Poelworde, the vice-presidents of the steel association and Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security.

The new trade measures introduced on 1 July (tariff quotas) were a response to the growing global surplus of steel production capacity, which is affecting the EU market. In 2025 alone, imports of steel products into the bloc rose by 14% year-on-year, whilst steel production in the European Union fell to a historic low of 125.8 million tonnes.

The associations note that, whilst it is still too early to fully assess the impact of this move, the initial signs are encouraging. According to EUROFER, in 2026 European steelmakers resumed steel production at a capacity of around 10 million tonnes. Furthermore, investment decisions totalling at least €3.4 billion have already been approved this year, with a further €2.4 billion expected in 2026.

However, these are merely early signs of stabilisation, not a sustained recovery.

‘The EU’s new steel trade measures have given our industry a much-needed respite. After years of decline, steelmaking capacity is being restored, investment decisions are being made, and stability is beginning to return. But stabilisation is not the same as recovery. The EU has taken an important first step, and we now call on EU leaders to build on this progress,” said Gert van Poelworde, President of EUROFER.

He added that it is necessary to protect the new trade measures from any form of circumvention by exporters to the EU and to ensure the favourable conditions required for the transformation of European industry towards climate neutrality. With regard to the latter, this involves competitive energy prices, fair carbon pricing for the bloc’s industry, an effective CBAM and stronger lead markets for ‘Made in the EU’ steel.

In a letter addressed to the heads of state and government of the EU, EUROFER also highlights the need to adapt the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to industrial realities. As the association points out, the mechanism should encourage decarbonisation without causing production and jobs to be relocated outside Europe.

Steel producers are investing in replacing around 35% of their traditional production capacity with hydrogen-ready capacity between 2030 and 2032. However, decarbonising the remaining capacity will not be possible without access to affordable energy and hydrogen, adequate infrastructure and viable markets for low-carbon steel. If safeguards against ‘carbon leakage’ are abolished before the necessary conditions are in place, Europe risks losing its steel industry.

As a reminder, EUROFER expects apparent steel consumption in the EU to rise by 0.1% year-on-year by the end of 2026, to 135 million tonnes. This is according to the organisation’s latest report — *Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026–2027* (third quarter).

The Association expects a more significant improvement in this figure in 2027, forecasting that demand will rise by 2.3% year-on-year over the period, to 138 million tonnes.